The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did not exist. Those digesting Karl Nell’s remarks today should understand that he wasn’t trying to *convince*… he was trying to get that elite professional audience *prepared*. These folks are used to s