I recently read Philip Tetlock's book Expert Political Judgment, which presents his 20-year study about experts' ability to predict the future. The insights he gleaned about the so-called experts who ...

Hedgehogs get too much glory, political scientist Philip Tetlock has suggested in books such as Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? and the more recent Superforecasting: The ...

Many business decisions hinge on fact-based predictions of the future, and careers are made or broken by the outcomes. No wonder, then, that companies value “expertise” at all levels – after all, more ...

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Early in his career, psychologist and researcher Philip Tetlock gained notoriety for his work exploring how well people predict the future – something we’d all like to do right now. Spoiler alert: ...

Philip Tetlock says there’s a conflict in the U.S. intelligence community between “political safety” and granular accuracy when predicting the future. To get business right, finance chiefs need to be ...

Every night for nearly a month last year, Reed Roberts woke up at 3 a.m. to check the newest real-time data on something not very many people think about: the melting of Arctic Sea ice. This unusual ...

History often isn’t kind to those who go on the record making predictions. Albert Einstein once said that nuclear energy would never be a thing, while Margaret Thatcher predicted that a woman would ...