How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple ...

In statistics, a frequentist interpretation looks only at the simple probability. But Bayes' theorem works with conditional information rather than just looking at a positive result, says Adam Frank.

When scientists spot an asteroid whose trajectory might take it close to Earth, they monitor it frequently and calculate the probability that it might collide with our planet. As they receive more ...

When scientists spot an asteroid whose trajectory might take it close to Earth, they monitor it frequently and calculate the probability that it might collide with our planet.

At the time of the announcement in January, the asteroid’s impact probability was reported to exceed 1%. The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth.